In the euro area, 2Q22 cyclical GDP growth was revised upwards to 0.8% from the previous reading of 0.6%. On a year-on-year basis, the bloc’s GDP ratio increased by 4.1% in 2Q22 compared to 3.9% recorded in the initial forecast. Looking at the growth rates by country, among the major economies, Germany grew by 0.1%, France by 0.5%, Italy by 1.1% and Spain by 1.1% in the 2Q22 period.
If we look at the sub-items; In 2Q22, household final consumption expenditures increased by 1.3% in the euro area and 1.2% in the EU (after 0% in both the euro area and the EU in the previous quarter). Government final expenditures increased by 0.6% in both the euro area and the EU (after 0.2% in the euro area and 0.1% in the EU in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation increased by 0.9% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU (after -0.8% and 0%, respectively). Exports increased by 1.3% in the euro area and 1.4% in the EU (after 1.2% and 1%). Imports increased 1.8% in the euro area and 1.9% in the EU (after -0.2% and +0.2%).
In the perspective of the ECB’s rate hike, high inflation has an important place, but it is debatable that these interest rate hikes will worsen in an environment where the impact of these rate hikes on the energy crisis and energy-related costs increase inflation. In the axis of the energy crisis, the economic activity in the Euro zone will be affected more negatively and the industry may come to a standstill, especially with the difficulty of using inputs in production. Therefore, we think that recession dynamics are maturing. With the expectation priced at 75 bps in the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision to be taken tomorrow, the approach of the members to the energy-related recession effects will also be important. However, when evaluated together with this interest rate increase perspective, it is seen that the ECB has shifted its priority level towards inflation.
Kaynak:Tera Yatırım-Enver Erkan
Hibya Haber Ajansı